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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Hangzhou Greentown host Yunnan Yukun at Huizhou Olympic Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 July 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 2W 3D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hangzhou Greentown at 1.20 PPG versus Yunnan Yukun's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Yunnan Yukun in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 0 for Yunnan Yukun and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Yunnan Yukun trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 62% and Yunnan Yukun 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 69% | Yunnan Yukun 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.02 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.197 / defence 1.122 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.875 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.313. Data: 46 Hangzhou Greentown games / 16 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 24%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Yunnan Yukun 4.17. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 54% — moderate model lean.

Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 90% | Yunnan Yukun 67% BTTS from recent games.

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