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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tianjin Teda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown beat Tianjin Teda 2-0 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.16 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.45 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Tianjin Teda landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.18 / defence 1.12 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 53% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 24%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 76%, Tianjin Teda 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights