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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Hangzhou Greentown host Tianjin Teda at Huizhou Olympic Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 20 August 2025 at 12:35 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 5W 4D 1L at Huizhou Olympic Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Tianjin Teda — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hangzhou Greentown 1.50 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 3 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Tianjin Teda winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Tianjin Teda 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 76% | Tianjin Teda 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.16 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.180 / defence 1.116 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.960 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.352. Data: 51 Hangzhou Greentown games / 51 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 53% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 24%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Tianjin Teda 4.17. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.61 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Tianjin Teda 70% BTTS from recent games.

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