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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Qingdao Youth Island 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Youth Island 2-1 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.01 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.73 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 44% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 32%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 80%, Qingdao Youth Island 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.27 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights