Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Huizhou Olympic Stadium plays host to Hangzhou Greentown versus Henan Jianye in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 8 November 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Huizhou Olympic Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Henan Jianye (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Hangzhou Greentown, 1.00 for Henan Jianye — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Henan Jianye in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Hangzhou Greentown 3W, Henan Jianye 3W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 65% and Henan Jianye 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 68% | Henan Jianye 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.57 xG and Henan Jianye 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.302 / defence 1.099 | Henan Jianye attack 1.047 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Hangzhou Greentown carry an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — their λ of 2.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Hangzhou Greentown games / 54 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 58% | Draw 19% | Henan Jianye 23%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.72 | Draw 5.26 | Henan Jianye 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.19. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.19 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.57 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 60% | Henan Jianye 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 58% | Draw 19% | Henan Jianye 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 74% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.57 / Henan Jianye 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.302 / def 1.099 | Henan Jianye attack 1.047 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Henan Jianye xG
74%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 58% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 23% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye?
Record (9 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 3W | Draws 3 | Henan Jianye 3W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.30) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (1.05x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.1%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
58%
1.72
19%
5.34
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
4.19
1.62
Henan Jianye xG
1.72
58%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.88
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
8%
13.11
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
2%
56.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.62 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 4.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 19W 18D 17L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye's form line: 18W 14D 22L from 54 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.26 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.74 PPG from 27 outings (12W 11D 4L).
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 8W 6D 13L from 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.56 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Henan Jianye in 69%.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 19W 18D 17L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Henan Jianye away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.74 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 30 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Hangzhou Greentown, 70% for Henan Jianye — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Hangzhou Greentown and 67% for Henan Jianye. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 70% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 67% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.