Hangzhou Greentown 2-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Huizhou Olympic Stadium plays host to Hangzhou Greentown versus Henan Jianye in Super League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Huizhou Olympic Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at Huizhou Olympic Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Hangzhou Greentown, 1.20 for Henan Jianye — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Hangzhou Greentown 2W, Henan Jianye 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Henan Jianye winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 65% versus Henan Jianye 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Henan Jianye 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.38 xG and Henan Jianye 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.178 / defence 1.065 | Henan Jianye attack 0.781 / defence 0.688. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.444. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.688 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Hangzhou Greentown games / 41 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 41% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 32%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Henan Jianye 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 90% | Henan Jianye 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 41% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.38 / Henan Jianye 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.178 / def 1.065 | Henan Jianye attack 0.781 / def 0.688 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Henan Jianye xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 41% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye?
Record (6 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 2W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 3W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.18) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.78x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.67
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.58
1.20
Henan Jianye xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
8%
12.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.20 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 27W 12D 21L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Henan Jianye's form line: 18W 18D 24L from 60 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.20 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.87 PPG from 30 outings (17W 5D 8L).
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 9D 16L from 30 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Henan Jianye away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.87 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 30 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 63%, Henan Jianye 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Hangzhou Greentown and 47% for Henan Jianye. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 53% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 47% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye finished level at 2-2 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.38 xG and Henan Jianye 1.20 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.18 / defence 1.06 against Henan Jianye attack 0.78 / defence 0.69, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 41% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 32%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Henan Jianye 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.