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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.26 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.20 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 61% | Draw 20% | Dalian Zhixing 19%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights