Hangzhou Greentown 4-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Huizhou Olympic Stadium plays host to Hangzhou Greentown versus Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Huizhou Olympic Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at Huizhou Olympic Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Changchun Yatai away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Changchun Yatai in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Hangzhou Greentown 1W, Changchun Yatai 1W, 4D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 65% and Changchun Yatai 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Changchun Yatai 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.00 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.075 / defence 0.970 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.847 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.418. Data: 39 Hangzhou Greentown games / 39 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Draw 23% | Changchun Yatai 21%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Changchun Yatai 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 90% | Changchun Yatai 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Draw 23% | Changchun Yatai 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.00 / Changchun Yatai 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.075 / def 0.970 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.847 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Changchun Yatai xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:00 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai?
Hangzhou Greentown 4 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 56% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai?
Record (6 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 1W | Draws 4 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.07) and Changchun Yatai's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.85x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.26
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.16
1.17
Changchun Yatai xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
3%
35.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.17 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 27W 12D 21L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Changchun Yatai's form line: 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.18 for Changchun Yatai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.87 PPG from 30 outings (17W 5D 8L).
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 6W 8D 16L from 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.50 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Changchun Yatai in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.87 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
5
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai?
From 8 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Changchun Yatai 3-3 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 63%, Changchun Yatai 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Hangzhou Greentown and 57% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 57% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 57% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Changchun Yatai 4-2 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.00 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.17 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Changchun Yatai outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Draw 23% | Changchun Yatai 21%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Changchun Yatai 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.