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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-4 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.90 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.89 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.25 / defence 1.13 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.24 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 38%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 78%, Beijing Guoan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights