Hangzhou Greentown 3-4 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beijing Guoan make the trip to Huizhou Olympic Stadium to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 August 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 5W 5D 0L at Huizhou Olympic Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Beijing Guoan in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Beijing Guoan 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 78% | Beijing Guoan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.90 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.247 / defence 1.133 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.235 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.767 / away 1.349. Beijing Guoan have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Hangzhou Greentown games / 49 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 38%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Beijing Guoan 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 90% | Beijing Guoan 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.90 / Beijing Guoan 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.247 / def 1.133 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.235 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.767 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Beijing Guoan xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 4 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 39% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan?
Record (7 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 3W | Draws 2 | Beijing Guoan 2W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.25x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.24x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
39%
2.58
23%
4.40
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.78
1.89
Beijing Guoan xG
2.58
39%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
15%
6.60
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
6%
17.02
6%
17.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.89 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 19W 10D 20L from 49 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 8L across 49 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hangzhou Greentown heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 13W 7D 4L from 24 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 10W 9D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.14 scored and 1.16 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 19W 10D 20L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 27W 14D 8L in their last 49 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.92 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Hangzhou Greentown, 62% for Beijing Guoan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Hangzhou Greentown and 54% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 54% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-4 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.90 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.89 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.25 / defence 1.13 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.24 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 38%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 78%, Beijing Guoan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.