Guangzhou R&F 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guangzhou R&F and SHANGHAI SIPG meet at Yuexiushan Stadium in Super League, Championship Round - 6. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 29 December 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Guangzhou R&F (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou R&F's home record at Yuexiushan Stadium: 3W 3D 3L from 9 Super League appearances (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.89 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SHANGHAI SIPG arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Guangzhou R&F 0W, SHANGHAI SIPG 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Guangzhou R&F half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou R&F 53% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou R&F 47% | SHANGHAI SIPG 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 1.35 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 1.097 / defence 1.298 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.937 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Guangzhou R&F games / 14 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 31% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 41%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou R&F 67% | SHANGHAI SIPG 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 31% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Guangzhou R&F 1.35 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 1.097 / def 1.298 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.937 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
1.56
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 29 December 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Guangzhou R&F 1 - 2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 31% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (1 meetings): Guangzhou R&F 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1W.
What form are Guangzhou R&F and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guangzhou R&F's attack rating (1.10) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (0.94x) against Guangzhou R&F's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
31%
3.24
28%
3.51
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
2.91
1.56
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
6%
15.47
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 1.56 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Guangzhou R&F have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 6W 7D 6L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 11W 5D 3L from 19 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guangzhou R&F.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Guangzhou R&F have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SHANGHAI SIPG's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guangzhou R&F are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.95 scored and 0.58 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou R&F and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Guangzhou R&F have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 11W 5D 3L in their last 19 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou R&F at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou R&F at home: 1.33 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Guangzhou R&F or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou R&F have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guangzhou R&F have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Guangzhou R&F
0
Draws
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 4 December 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou R&F and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou R&F 67%, SHANGHAI SIPG 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Guangzhou R&F) and 44% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 33%; SHANGHAI SIPG in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou R&F play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Guangzhou R&F's games and 56% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guangzhou R&F vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Guangzhou R&F's matches and 44% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Guangzhou R&F and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Guangzhou R&F have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Guangzhou R&F 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Guangzhou R&F 1-2 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Championship Round - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 1.35 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.56 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 1.10 / defence 1.30 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 31% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 41%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou R&F 47%, SHANGHAI SIPG 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.