Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Changchun Yatai at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Championship Round - 6 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Tianhe Stadium to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 December 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC at Tianhe Stadium this season: 4W 3D 2L from 9 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Shenzhen Ruby FC are significantly better at Tianhe Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai away from home this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Changchun Yatai are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 0 for Changchun Yatai and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shenzhen Ruby FC 68% and Changchun Yatai 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shenzhen Ruby FC 74% | Changchun Yatai 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.27 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.928 / defence 1.068 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.962 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 14 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 33% | Draw 31% | Changchun Yatai 36%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Changchun Yatai 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 56% | Changchun Yatai 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 33% | Draw 31% | Changchun Yatai 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.27 / Changchun Yatai 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.928 / def 1.068 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.962 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Changchun Yatai xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 29 December 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 1 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 33% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai?
Record (1 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 0W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
33%
2.99
31%
3.25
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.59
1.32
Changchun Yatai xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.32 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 8W 5D 6L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai's form line: 10W 5D 4L from 19 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.53 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.53 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 8W 5D 6L in their last 19 games (1.53 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 10W 5D 4L in their last 19 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Changchun Yatai have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jun 2023, when Changchun Yatai won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
5
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai?
From 6 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Changchun Yatai have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shenzhen Ruby FC at 56%, Changchun Yatai at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 78% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's games and 78% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 78% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 at Tianhe Stadium, Championship Round - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.27 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.32 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 33% | Draw 31% | Changchun Yatai 36%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 74%, Changchun Yatai 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.53 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.