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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Dalian Zhixing edge out Yunnan Yukun 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dalian Zhixing beat Yunnan Yukun 3-2 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.62 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.00 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yunnan Yukun outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.84 / defence 0.83 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 50% | Draw 29% | Yunnan Yukun 22%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights