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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium plays host to Dalian Zhixing versus Yunnan Yukun in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.62 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.838 / defence 0.827 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.850 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.427. Data: 9 Dalian Zhixing games / 9 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 50% | Draw 29% | Yunnan Yukun 22%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Yunnan Yukun 4.55. Dalian Zhixing hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Zhixing at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Form data is not yet available for either side
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 50% | Draw 29% | Yunnan Yukun 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.62 / Yunnan Yukun 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.838 / def 0.827 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.850 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Yunnan Yukun xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 08:30 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
Dalian Zhixing 3 - 2 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 50% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun in?
• Form data is not yet available for either side
What do the betting odds say about Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture