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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Dalian Zhixing 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Dalian Zhixing 0-1 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.26 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.84 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Zhixing fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.64 / defence 0.91 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.41 / defence 1.11, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 26% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 51%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 34%, SHANGHAI SIPG 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights