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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dalian Zhixing cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shandong Luneng.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dalian Zhixing beat Shandong Luneng 2-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.42 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.43 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shandong Luneng landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.73 / defence 0.92 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.19 / defence 1.16, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 37% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 38%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Dalian Zhixing win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 31%, Shandong Luneng 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dalian Zhixing 1.25 PPG, Shandong Luneng 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Zhixing win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights