🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Dalian Zhixing welcome Shandong Luneng to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 July 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dalian Zhixing's home record at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium: 5W 1D 2L from 8 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Dalian Zhixing) versus 1.20 (Shandong Luneng). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dalian Zhixing, 1 for Shandong Luneng and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 1–4 with Shandong Luneng winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Dalian Zhixing in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 44% versus Shandong Luneng 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 31% | Shandong Luneng 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.42 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.729 / defence 0.917 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.189 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.309. Dalian Zhixing's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Dalian Zhixing games / 46 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 37% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 38%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Shandong Luneng 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 25% | Shandong Luneng 90% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights