🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Qingdao Youth Island cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dalian Zhixing.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Youth Island beat Dalian Zhixing 0-2 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.16 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.17 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.74 / defence 0.89 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.96 / defence 0.83, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 35% | Draw 30% | Qingdao Youth Island 36%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 32%, Qingdao Youth Island 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dalian Zhixing 1.32 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights