Dalian Zhixing 0-2 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium plays host to Dalian Zhixing versus Qingdao Youth Island in Super League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 4 October 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Dalian Zhixing (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Youth Island's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Dalian Zhixing, 1.50 for Qingdao Youth Island — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Dalian Zhixing, 1 for Qingdao Youth Island and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Zhixing — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 40% versus Qingdao Youth Island 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 32% | Qingdao Youth Island 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.16 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.745 / defence 0.890 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.964 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.871 / away 1.367. Dalian Zhixing's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Dalian Zhixing games / 55 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 35% | Draw 30% | Qingdao Youth Island 36%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Qingdao Youth Island 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 20% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 35% | Draw 30% | Qingdao Youth Island 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.16 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.745 / def 0.890 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.964 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.871 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Qingdao Youth Island xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Dalian Zhixing 0 - 2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 35% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 0W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Youth Island 1W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.96x) against Dalian Zhixing's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.36
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.33
1.17
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.17 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Dalian Zhixing have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 9W 6D 10L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Youth Island's form line: 8W 9D 8L from 25 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Dalian Zhixing against 1.32 for Qingdao Youth Island. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dalian Zhixing have posted 2.08 PPG from 12 outings (8W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 3W 4D 5L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.32 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 games (1.32 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 8W 9D 8L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 2.08 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Qingdao Youth Island go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Zhixing have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Dalian Zhixing
0
Draws
3
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 3 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 2-3 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 25%, Qingdao Youth Island 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Dalian Zhixing) and 58% (Qingdao Youth Island).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Qingdao Youth Island in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Qingdao Youth Island?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 67% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 58% of Qingdao Youth Island's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Dalian Zhixing 0-2 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.16 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.17 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.74 / defence 0.89 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.96 / defence 0.83, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 35% | Draw 30% | Qingdao Youth Island 36%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 32%, Qingdao Youth Island 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Zhixing 1.32 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.