🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Dalian Zhixing defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dalian Zhixing beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.12 xG and Henan Jianye 1.25 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.85 / defence 0.90 against Henan Jianye attack 0.90 / defence 0.78, drawn from 6/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 31% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 37%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Dalian Zhixing win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights