🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Chengdu Better City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dalian Zhixing.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chengdu Better City beat Dalian Zhixing 0-2 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.28 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.26 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.79 / defence 0.77 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 36% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 36%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Chengdu Better City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 26%, Chengdu Better City 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights