Dalian Zhixing 0-2 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Chengdu Better City travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 August 2025, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dalian Zhixing 1.90 PPG, Chengdu Better City 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dalian Zhixing, 1 for Chengdu Better City and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Chengdu Better City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Dalian Zhixing trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Chengdu Better City trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 37% versus Chengdu Better City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 26% | Chengdu Better City 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.28 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.787 / defence 0.765 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.214 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.756 / away 1.353. Dalian Zhixing's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chengdu Better City have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Dalian Zhixing's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 19 Dalian Zhixing games / 49 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 36% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 36%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Chengdu Better City 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Zhixing 20% | Chengdu Better City 70%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Aug 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 36% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.28 / Chengdu Better City 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.787 / def 0.765 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.214 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.756 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Chengdu Better City xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 8 August 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City?
Dalian Zhixing 0 - 2 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 36% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Chengdu Better City?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 0W | Draws 0 | Chengdu Better City 1W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Chengdu Better City in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dalian Zhixing's attack rating (0.79) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
36%
2.74
28%
3.56
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.53
1.26
Chengdu Better City xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.26 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Zhixing's recent record stands at 8W 5D 6L from 19 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 3L across 19 games — 2.11 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalian Zhixing heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dalian Zhixing have managed 6W 1D 2L from 9 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 5W 2D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.95 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Dalian Zhixing have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Chengdu Better City in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 8W 5D 6L in their last 19 games (1.53 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 12W 4D 3L in their last 19 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 2.11 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Dalian Zhixing or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Zhixing have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Zhixing and Chengdu Better City runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dalian Zhixing's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Dalian Zhixing
0
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Chengdu Better City?
From 3 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 2-0 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 22%, Chengdu Better City 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Dalian Zhixing) and 78% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Chengdu Better City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 67% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 78% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chengdu Better City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Dalian Zhixing 0-2 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.28 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.26 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.79 / defence 0.77 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 36% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 36%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Chengdu Better City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 26%, Chengdu Better City 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.