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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 7, as Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.22 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.16 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.96 / defence 0.81 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.94 / defence 1.36, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 60% | Draw 22% | Yunnan Yukun 18%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights