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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tianjin Teda beat Chengdu Better City 1-2 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.99 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.00 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.05 / defence 0.84 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.99 / defence 1.13, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 60% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 18%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Tianjin Teda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.87 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights