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Last-gasp drama as Chengdu Better City snatch the points — Chengdu Better City 3-0 Henan Jianye.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chengdu Better City found a late winner to edge Henan Jianye 3-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. It was 1-0 at the break, with 2 further goals after it. Scorers: E. Sorokin (18') · Wei Shihao (74') · Abduweli Behram (90'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.02 xG and Henan Jianye 0.79 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.49 / defence 0.76 against Henan Jianye attack 0.86 / defence 0.81, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 66% | Draw 20% | Henan Jianye 14%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Henan Jianye 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 85% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 67% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

In-Play Signals

Chengdu Better City controlled the ball (51%). That matched the side the model favoured, and they converted the territory into the win the numbers expected. Chengdu Better City shot more often (13 to 8, 7 on target). The scoring opened before half-time (1-0 at the interval). 2 of the 3 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand. With the decisive goal arriving late, the fixture spent most of its length tracking closer to expectation than the final scoreline suggests.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics