Chengdu Better City 3-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park to face Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Chengdu Better City (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Chengdu Better City's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 1.80 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chengdu Better City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Henan Jianye in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chengdu Better City lead 3W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chengdu Better City 58% and Henan Jianye 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 60% | Henan Jianye 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.02 xG and Henan Jianye 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.491 / defence 0.761 | Henan Jianye attack 0.865 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.202. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.491 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Chengdu Better City games / 40 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 66% | Draw 20% | Henan Jianye 14%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Henan Jianye 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Chengdu Better City 60% | Henan Jianye 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 66% | Draw 20% | Henan Jianye 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG Chengdu Better City 2.02 / Henan Jianye 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.491 / def 0.761 | Henan Jianye attack 0.865 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Henan Jianye xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Chengdu Better City 3 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 66% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye?
Record (8 meetings): Chengdu Better City 3W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 3W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.49) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.86x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
66%
1.51
20%
4.94
14%
7.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.82
0.79
Henan Jianye xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
7.35
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
2%
55.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.79 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 60 games, going 35W 14D 11L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.22 PPG from 60 outings (19W 16D 25L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 21W 5D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (7W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.43 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 35W 14D 11L in their last 60 games (1.98 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Henan Jianye away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.27 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 3-0 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Chengdu Better City 3-0 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 50%, Henan Jianye 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Chengdu Better City) and 53% (Henan Jianye). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Chengdu Better City's games and 63% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 53% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Henan Jianye 3-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.02 xG and Henan Jianye 0.79 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.49 / defence 0.76 against Henan Jianye attack 0.86 / defence 0.81, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 66% | Draw 20% | Henan Jianye 14%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Henan Jianye 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.