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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Henan Jianye defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Henan Jianye beat Chengdu Better City 1-2 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.94 xG and Henan Jianye 0.98 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.06 / defence 0.67 against Henan Jianye attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 59% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 18%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Henan Jianye win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Henan Jianye 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Henan Jianye's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights