Chengdu Better City 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chengdu Better City (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chengdu Better City face Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park to face Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 5 May 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Chengdu Better City. A 0.70 PPG lead over Hangzhou Greentown (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chengdu Better City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hangzhou Greentown in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Chengdu Better City 3W, Hangzhou Greentown 1W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 3–1 with Chengdu Better City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Hangzhou Greentown half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 53% versus Hangzhou Greentown 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chengdu Better City 60% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.46 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 0.892 / defence 0.731 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.983 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.437. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Chengdu Better City games / 40 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 46% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 26%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.85. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 60% | Hangzhou Greentown 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 46% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.46 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 0.892 / def 0.731 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.983 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Hangzhou Greentown xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Chengdu Better City 2 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 46% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (6 meetings): Chengdu Better City 3W | Draws 2 | Hangzhou Greentown 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.98x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.50
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.49
1.03
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
6%
16.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.03 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 13D 14L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.55 PPG from 60 outings (27W 12D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 1.55 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 20W 5D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (10W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 1.57 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 13D 14L in their last 60 games (1.87 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.17 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Chengdu Better City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 4-0 on 25 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Chengdu Better City
3
Draws
1
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 10 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 6, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 2-3 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Chengdu Better City and 77% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Chengdu Better City's games and 67% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 77% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Hangzhou Greentown 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.46 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.03 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.89 / defence 0.73 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.98 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 46% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 26%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.87 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.