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Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Changchun Yatai 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chengdu Better City beat Changchun Yatai 1-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.79 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.67 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.07 / defence 0.65 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 63% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 12%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Changchun Yatai 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights