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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Changchun Yatai 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tianjin Teda beat Changchun Yatai 1-2 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.27 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.26 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.69 / defence 0.88 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 36% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 36%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 58%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.18 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights