🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Development Area Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 May 2025, 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at Development Area Stadium, Changchun Yatai have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Development Area Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Development Area Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Changchun Yatai 1.40 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Tianjin Teda 2, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 60% and Tianjin Teda 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 58% | Tianjin Teda 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.27 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.694 / defence 0.882 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.984 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.456. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Changchun Yatai games / 42 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 36% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 36%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Tianjin Teda 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights