Changchun Yatai 1-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Development Area Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 May 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Development Area Stadium, Changchun Yatai have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Development Area Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Development Area Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Changchun Yatai 1.40 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Tianjin Teda 2, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 60% and Tianjin Teda 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 58% | Tianjin Teda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.27 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.694 / defence 0.882 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.984 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.456. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Changchun Yatai games / 42 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 36% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 36%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Tianjin Teda 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Development Area Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 36% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.27 / Tianjin Teda 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.694 / def 0.882 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.984 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Tianjin Teda xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Development Area Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Development Area Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 36% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
Record (8 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 5 | Tianjin Teda 2W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.69x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.63
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.53
1.26
Tianjin Teda xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.26 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Changchun Yatai have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 18W 17D 25L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 23W 21D 16L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.18 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Changchun Yatai have posted 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (12W 9D 9L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 11W 6D 13L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.40 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.50 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2021, when Changchun Yatai won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
6
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Tianjin Teda 2-2 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Changchun Yatai at 63%, Tianjin Teda at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Changchun Yatai) and 57% (Tianjin Teda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Changchun Yatai's games and 67% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 57% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Changchun Yatai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Changchun Yatai 1-2 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.27 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.26 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.69 / defence 0.88 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 36% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 36%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 58%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.18 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.