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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Changchun Yatai.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Changchun Yatai 1-3 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.06 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.78 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.73 / defence 0.97 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.41 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 22% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 54%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 65%, SHANGHAI SIPG 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights