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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Changchun Yatai face SHANGHAI SIPG.

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Full Analysis

Development Area Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 18 July 2025 at 09:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Changchun Yatai have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Changchun Yatai at Development Area Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Development Area Stadium than their overall form suggests.

SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, SHANGHAI SIPG are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 9 meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Changchun Yatai's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 0–2 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Changchun Yatai — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 61% and SHANGHAI SIPG 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Changchun Yatai 65% | SHANGHAI SIPG 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.06 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.735 / defence 0.967 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.408 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.309. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.408 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Changchun Yatai games / 46 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 22% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 54%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 60% | SHANGHAI SIPG 80% BTTS from recent games.

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