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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Changchun Yatai 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shanghai Shenhua beat Changchun Yatai 1-2 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.95 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.32 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.71 / defence 0.91 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.09 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 45%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 58%, Shanghai Shenhua 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights