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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Changchun Yatai face Shanghai Shenhua.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Changchun Yatai welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Development Area Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 June 2025 at 11:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Changchun Yatai — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Changchun Yatai's home record at Development Area Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Development Area Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Development Area Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Shanghai Shenhua away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Form points away from home here. Shanghai Shenhua's 2.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Changchun Yatai's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Changchun Yatai, 4 for Shanghai Shenhua and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Changchun Yatai trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 60% versus Shanghai Shenhua 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 58% | Shanghai Shenhua 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.95 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.712 / defence 0.908 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.095 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.332. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Changchun Yatai games / 45 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 45%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.22. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Shanghai Shenhua 40% BTTS from recent games.

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