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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon drew 2-2 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.39 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.88 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.73 / defence 1.04 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.61 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 47% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Jonoon 22%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 59%, Qingdao Jonoon 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 0.91 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.54 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights