Changchun Yatai 2-2 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai host Qingdao Jonoon at Development Area Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 September 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Development Area Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Jonoon stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Changchun Yatai) versus 0.90 (Qingdao Jonoon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2025, ended 0–3 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 57% versus Qingdao Jonoon 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 59% | Qingdao Jonoon 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.39 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.729 / defence 1.037 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.614 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.885 / away 1.373. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Changchun Yatai games / 54 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 47% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Jonoon 22%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Qingdao Jonoon 4.55. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Development Area Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 47% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Jonoon 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.39 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.729 / def 1.037 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.614 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.885 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Qingdao Jonoon xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Development Area Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Changchun Yatai 2 - 2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Development Area Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 47% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (5 meetings): Changchun Yatai 3W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 2W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Jonoon's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
47%
2.12
31%
3.27
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.26
0.88
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.88 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 12W 13D 29L from 54 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 30L across 54 games — 0.85 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 0.91 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 9W 7D 10L from 26 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Changchun Yatai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 2W 4D 20L across 26 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 0.94 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 12W 13D 29L in their last 54 games (0.91 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 13D 30L in their last 54 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.31 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Changchun Yatai won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 6 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Changchun Yatai 2-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 54%, Qingdao Jonoon 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Changchun Yatai) and 38% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 31% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 38% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon drew 2-2 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.39 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.88 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.73 / defence 1.04 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.61 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 47% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Jonoon 22%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 59%, Qingdao Jonoon 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 0.91 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.54 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.