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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Changchun Yatai 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Henan Jianye beat Changchun Yatai 0-1 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.97 xG and Henan Jianye 0.99 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Changchun Yatai fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.75 / defence 0.89 against Henan Jianye attack 0.78 / defence 0.75, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 58%, Henan Jianye 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.18 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights