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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Changchun Yatai take on Henan Jianye.

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Analysis

Henan Jianye make the trip to Development Area Stadium to face Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Changchun Yatai have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 6W 3D 1L at Development Area Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Development Area Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Development Area Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Henan Jianye's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Changchun Yatai, 1.20 for Henan Jianye — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Changchun Yatai lead 1W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Changchun Yatai — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 60% versus Henan Jianye 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 58% | Henan Jianye 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.97 xG and Henan Jianye 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.749 / defence 0.885 | Henan Jianye attack 0.777 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.438. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Changchun Yatai games / 40 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 33%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Henan Jianye 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Henan Jianye 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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