Changchun Yatai 0-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Changchun Sports Center Stadium to face Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 4W 4D 2L at Changchun Sports Center Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Changchun Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Henan Jianye's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Henan Jianye are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Changchun Yatai lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Changchun Yatai — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Henan Jianye 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 51% | Henan Jianye 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.93 xG and Henan Jianye 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.932 / defence 1.047 | Henan Jianye attack 1.086 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.468. Henan Jianye bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Changchun Yatai games / 43 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 44% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 33%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Henan Jianye 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Henan Jianye (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 80% | Henan Jianye 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 44% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.93 / Henan Jianye 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.932 / def 1.047 | Henan Jianye attack 1.086 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Henan Jianye xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 44% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye?
Record (4 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.93x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (1.09x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
44%
2.29
23%
4.30
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.60
1.67
Henan Jianye xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
8%
12.18
5%
20.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.67 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 63 games, going 20W 20D 23L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.46 PPG from 63 outings (25W 17D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.46 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 10W 10D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.06 points per game from 31 outings (8W 9D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.51 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 20W 20D 23L in their last 63 games (1.27 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Henan Jianye away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.29 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Henan Jianye have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 6-2 on 11 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
4
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye?
From 8 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Henan Jianye 2-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 58%, Henan Jianye 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Changchun Yatai) and 42% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 26% of games; Henan Jianye in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 48% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 42% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Changchun Yatai's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.93 xG and Henan Jianye 1.67 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against Henan Jianye attack 1.09 / defence 1.32, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 44% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 33%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 51%, Henan Jianye 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.27 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.