Henan Jianye 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Henan Jianye welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Henan Jianye) versus 1.70 (Shanghai Shenhua). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Henan Jianye, 2 for Shanghai Shenhua and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 3–0 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 49% versus Shanghai Shenhua 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 49% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 0.79 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.891 / defence 1.061 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.975 / defence 0.581. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.536. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.581 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Henan Jianye games / 42 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 18% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 55%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Shanghai Shenhua 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 60% | Shanghai Shenhua 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 May 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 18% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Henan Jianye 0.79 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.891 / def 1.061 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.975 / def 0.581 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.536 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Shanghai Shenhua xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Henan Jianye 1 - 2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 18% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (5 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 2 | Shanghai Shenhua 2W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
18%
5.61
27%
3.74
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.38
1.59
Shanghai Shenhua xG
5.61
18%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
4%
27.53
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 14.7 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.59 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Henan Jianye come into this having played 63 games, going 25W 17D 21L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Shanghai Shenhua sit at 1.62 PPG from 63 outings (28W 18D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.46 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Henan Jianye's home form reads 16W 8D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 1.48 points per game from 31 outings (12W 10D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.19 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 games (1.46 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 28W 18D 17L in their last 63 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.81 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2022, when Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
7
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 1, Shanghai Shenhua have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 52%, Shanghai Shenhua 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Henan Jianye) and 45% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 58% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 45% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Henan Jianye 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Henan Jianye 1-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 0.79 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.59 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.97 / defence 0.58, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 18% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 55%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 49%, Shanghai Shenhua 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.46 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shanghai Shenhua win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.