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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown drew 3-3 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.02 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.63 / defence 0.96 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.23 / defence 0.89, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 23% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 48%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 59%, Hangzhou Greentown 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights