🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Development Area Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 20 September 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Changchun Yatai have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Changchun Yatai's home record at Development Area Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.90 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai in recent Super League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Changchun Yatai lead 1W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2025, ended 2–4 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 57% and Hangzhou Greentown 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Changchun Yatai 59% | Hangzhou Greentown 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.02 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.630 / defence 0.957 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.230 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.819 / away 1.321. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.630 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Changchun Yatai games / 54 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 23% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 48%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.08. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Changchun Yatai 40% | Hangzhou Greentown 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights