🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda finished level at 2-2 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.97 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.07 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 58% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 20%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 60%, Tianjin Teda 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights