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Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beijing Guoan face Tianjin Teda.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Workers' Stadium to take on Beijing Guoan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 August 2025, 12:35 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Beijing Guoan's home record at Workers' Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Beijing Guoan are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Beijing Guoan have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 8 past contests while Tianjin Teda have managed just 1 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The historical record gives Beijing Guoan a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 65% and Tianjin Teda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 60% | Tianjin Teda 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.97 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.050 / defence 0.890 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.907 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.781 / away 1.331. Data: 48 Beijing Guoan games / 48 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 58% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 20%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Tianjin Teda 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Tianjin Teda 70% BTTS from recent games.

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