🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Shandong Luneng.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Shandong Luneng 6-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.88 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.65 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.16 / defence 0.73 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.48 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 43% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 33%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 57%, Shandong Luneng 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.78 PPG, Shandong Luneng 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.47 average — above their attacking norm. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights