Beijing Guoan 1-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Beijing Guoan welcome Qingdao Youth Island to Workers' Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 17 June 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 7W 2D 1L at Workers' Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Workers' Stadium.
Qingdao Youth Island — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Beijing Guoan at 1.90 PPG versus Qingdao Youth Island's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Beijing Guoan, 0 for Qingdao Youth Island and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beijing Guoan trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 67% and Qingdao Youth Island 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 63% | Qingdao Youth Island 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.32 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.258 / defence 0.771 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.957 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.347. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Beijing Guoan's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Beijing Guoan games / 43 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 67% | Draw 19% | Qingdao Youth Island 14%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Qingdao Youth Island 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 50% | Qingdao Youth Island 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Jun 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 67% | Draw 19% | Qingdao Youth Island 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 57% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.32 / Qingdao Youth Island 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.258 / def 0.771 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.957 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Qingdao Youth Island xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 17 June 2025 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 67% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (2 meetings): Beijing Guoan 1W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.32. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.18
14%
7.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.32
0.99
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
7.06
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
10%
10.19
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
1%
71.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.99 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 16W 8D 6L from 30 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Qingdao Youth Island, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 14L across 30 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Youth Island heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 10W 3D 2L from 15 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record stands at 5W 1D 9L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.37 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Qingdao Youth Island in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 16W 8D 6L in their last 30 games (1.87 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.20 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Qingdao Youth Island been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Qingdao Youth Island in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Beijing Guoan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
2
Draws
0
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 5 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 67%, Qingdao Youth Island 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Beijing Guoan and 73% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Qingdao Youth Island in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Beijing Guoan's games and 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 73% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Qingdao Youth Island 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.32 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.99 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beijing Guoan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.26 / defence 0.77 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 67% | Draw 19% | Qingdao Youth Island 14%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 63%, Qingdao Youth Island 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.