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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.65 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 39% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 33%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 57%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.78 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights