Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chongqing Tongliang Long make the trip to to face Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Beijing Guoan (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's overall Super League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Beijing Guoan's 2.20 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Chongqing Tongliang Long's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beijing Guoan lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Chongqing Tongliang Long goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 68% and Chongqing Tongliang Long 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 64% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.67 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.128 / defence 0.957 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.619 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Data: 55 Beijing Guoan games / 25 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 57% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 18%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 60% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 57% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.67 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.128 / def 0.957 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.619 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 57% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Record (1 meetings): Beijing Guoan 1W | Draws 0 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.13) and Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack (0.62x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.01
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.50
0.83
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
3%
28.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.4 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.83 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 25 games, going 11W 9D 5L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chongqing Tongliang Long sit at 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (7W 10D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Chongqing Tongliang Long is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Chongqing Tongliang Long — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 6W 4D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Chongqing Tongliang Long have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Tongliang Long are on 1.04 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 11W 9D 5L in their last 25 games (1.68 PPG), while Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 7W 10D 8L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Chongqing Tongliang Long away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.69 PPG; Chongqing Tongliang Long away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Chongqing Tongliang Long been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Beijing Guoan
0
Draws
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 1 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 1, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chongqing Tongliang Long see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 69%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Beijing Guoan) and 31% (Chongqing Tongliang Long).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Chongqing Tongliang Long in 31%; Chongqing Tongliang Long in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Beijing Guoan's games and 46% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 31% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.