📰

Prediction vindicated as York United edge out Vancouver FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

York United beat Vancouver FC 1-0 at York Lions Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. It was 1-0 at the break, the second half adding nothing to the tally. Scorers: G. Bitar (6'). The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.87 xG and Vancouver FC 1.25 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. York United fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Vancouver FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 50% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 24%, with York United to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 61%, Vancouver FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 79% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 70% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. York United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments